Trade News Weekly Global Analysis

Trade News Weekly Global Analysis

UK Retail Slump Deepened in March

Retail trading conditions in the UK weakened further in March 2026, as the CBI retail sales balance fell to -50 from -43 in February, missing expectations and marking the lowest level since April 2020. The data indicated that more retailers experienced declining sales amid cost-of-living pressures, high borrowing costs, and weak consumer confidence, while seasonal demand remained soft. Historically, such negative readings were rare compared to long-term averages, highlighting the severity of the downturn. Although forecasts suggested a gradual recovery in the coming quarters, near-term performance remained dependent on inflation, interest rates, wage growth, and consumer sentiment.

US Housing Market Continued Cooling

Home price growth across major US cities slowed in January 2026, with the Case-Shiller 20-City Index rising 1.2% year over year, down from 1.4% and below expectations. The slowdown marked the weakest pace since mid-2023, reflecting affordability challenges and cautious buyer activity, while real home values declined for an eighth consecutive month. Regional trends were mixed, with gains led by cities like New York and Chicago, while Tampa recorded declines, highlighting localized market differences. Monthly data suggested stabilization rather than a sharp downturn, with modest growth expected in the near term depending on interest rates, supply, and economic conditions.

US House Price Growth Moderated

US single-family home prices rose modestly by 0.1% in January 2026, slowing from December’s 0.3% increase and signaling a moderation in housing momentum amid affordability constraints and high borrowing costs. Regional performance varied widely, with some areas posting gains while others declined, reflecting differences in local demand, supply, and economic conditions. Annual price growth remained positive but subdued compared to previous years, indicating a cooling trend following the pandemic-era surge. Historical data highlighted that current growth levels were below long-term averages, and market participants closely monitored future data for signs of stabilization or renewed pressure.

US Growth Slowed Sharply in Q4

The US economy expanded at a slower annualized rate of 0.5% in Q4 2025, revised down from earlier estimates due to weaker investment and softer consumer spending. Growth was supported by services consumption, though goods spending remained subdued, while declines in residential investment, exports, and government spending further weighed on overall performance. A significant drop in government expenditure, partly due to a shutdown, reduced GDP growth notably. Despite the weak quarter, full-year growth reached 2.1%, suggesting earlier resilience, with future performance expected to depend on consumer demand, policy developments, and business investment trends.

US Manufacturing Expanded Modestly

The US manufacturing sector showed modest improvement in March 2026, with the ISM PMI rising to 52.7, driven mainly by stronger production, though new orders softened and employment continued to contract. Price pressures intensified significantly, while supplier delivery delays persisted, indicating ongoing supply chain challenges. Business sentiment remained cautious, with many manufacturers citing concerns over tariffs, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty. Although overall activity expanded, forecasts suggested that confidence could ease slightly in the near term, with longer-term expectations pointing to moderate and uneven growth in the sector.