EIA Forecast Signals Notable Build in US Crude Oil Inventories

EIA Forecast Signals Notable Build in U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Traders closely watched the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest forecast, released on June 18, 2025, which indicated a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil inventories. The agency projected a crude stock build of 0.078 million barrels for the week ending June 13 — a notable rise from the previous forecast of just 0.011 million barrels.

The EIA’s weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is widely regarded as a key driver of short-term oil price movements. companies and often serves as a market signal for shifts in supply-demand dynamics. A larger-than-expected inventory build typically suggests weaker demand or excessive supply, both of which can pressure oil prices lower.

For commodity traders and energy market participants, such a forecast could serve as an early warning of potential bearish momentum in crude oil futures. Price volatility may increase as the market digests this data, especially if the actual inventory numbers confirm the projected build.

While the official inventory figures had not been released at the time of the forecast, the higher estimate already sparked speculation across trading desks. Traders may have begun repositioning, particularly in light of macroeconomic uncertainties and seasonal consumption trends. If confirmed, the data might weigh on oil benchmarks in the short term, adding new layers of complexity to trading strategies tied to crude.