Core Retail Sales Forecast Points to 0.3% Rise Ahead of June Data

Core Retail Sales Forecast Points to 0.3% Rise Ahead of June Data

The U.S. Census Bureau released its latest Core Retail Sales data on Tuesday, offering a snapshot of consumer activity for the past month. According to preliminary estimates, the forecast for May 2025 stood at a 0.3% month-over-month increase, a slight uptick from April's revised figure of 0.1%.

The Core Retail Sales metric, which excludes automobile sales due to their historically volatile nature, is considered a key gauge of consumer spending and inflationary pressures. The report compiled data from roughly 5,000 retail businesses across the United States, with results extrapolated to represent national trends.

The anticipated rise suggested that consumer demand may have remained resilient despite ongoing concerns around inflation and interest rates. Analysts noted that even modest growth in this index might have been interpreted as a sign of underlying economic strength, potentially influencing short-term movement in U.S. dollar valuations.

While the data did not include auto sales, which often fluctuate widely due to supply chain dynamics and financing conditions, the core measure helped economists assess broader spending patterns. Market participants were likely to watch closely for any surprises in the actual figures, as stronger-than-expected results could hint at sustained consumer momentum, while weaker data might raise concerns about a cooling retail environment.