Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

Mexico’s CPI Sees Slight Uptick to 0.32%, Markets Watch for Policy Signals

On June 9, 2025, Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, showing a projected month-over-month inflation rate of 0.32%, slightly above the previous forecast of 0.31%. This modest uptick hinted at a potential acceleration in consumer price growth, underscoring the CPI’s role in tracking inflation trends and signaling broader economic patterns. Given its influence on the valuation of the Mexican peso, the inflation figure drew market attention as a possible cue for monetary policy shifts. The upcoming CPI forecast for July 9, 2025, is expected to remain steady at 0.32%, suggesting a possible continuation of the current inflationary pace.

PBOC Forecasts Steep Drop in New Loans for June 2025

On June 10, 2025, the People's Bank of China released its New Loans forecast, estimating ¥0.954 trillion for the period—a sharp drop from the previous ¥2.626 trillion. This decline signaled a possible tightening in credit expansion and suggested a cautious monetary stance amid efforts to manage inflation or curb economic overheating. As new loans reflect the flow of credit and directly impact money supply and economic momentum, the lower forecast raised concerns about a potential slowdown in economic activity. The upcoming forecast, due on July 10, 2025, remains unchanged at ¥0.954 trillion, reaffirming the cautious outlook compared to the previous, more expansive forecast.

U.S. CPI Forecast Rises in June, Hints at Persistent Inflation

In June 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, forecasting a value of 321.597—an increase from the previous forecast of 319.064—suggesting a possible upward trend in prices for everyday goods and services. The upcoming CPI forecast, scheduled for release on July 15, 2025, is projected at 320.395, marking a slight decrease from the current figure of 321.597.

May PPI Dips 0.2%, Extending Easing Inflation Trend

This slight decrease pointed to easing inflationary pressures at the producer level, as the PPI—benchmarked to 1982 price levels—tracks average changes in prices received by domestic producers and serves as an early signal of future consumer inflation. While the decline suggested some relief, analysts remained cautious, weighing factors such as core price movements and supply dynamics. The upcoming PPI forecast, due on July 16, 2025, is projected to remain at 0.2%, indicating a steady but subdued inflation outlook.

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up Slightly in June Forecast

Based on monthly interviews with over 500 households, the index reflected public attitudes toward income, inflation, spending, and employment. The modest uptick may have indicated growing but cautious optimism among consumers adjusting to recent economic shifts, including inflation trends and interest rate movements.