Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Indicated Contraction, Future Projection Shows Minor Improvement

S&P Global forecast on June 2, 2025, indicated a potential cooling in the United States manufacturing sector, with the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) projected at 49.3, a decrease from the previous 51.0. This sub-50 reading suggested a possible contraction, potentially impacting new orders, production, hiring, and U.S. dollar valuations, as market observers awaited the official release for confirmation. An upcoming forecast dated July 1, 2025, predicts a PMI of 49.8; this would represent a positive trend compared to the 49.3 figure, suggesting a slight improvement though still indicating a contraction.

Eurozone Inflation Showed Stability, Upcoming Forecast Suggests Easing

Eurostat's forecast on June 3, 2025, indicated a potential year-over-year Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 2.2%, matching the previous outlook and suggesting steady perceived inflationary pressures. This consistency implied that factors influencing price stability were seen as holding firm or that new variables were not yet strong enough to significantly alter the anticipated trajectory, with potential implications for household purchasing power and business decisions. An upcoming forecast dated June 18, 2025, predicts a CPI of 1.9%; this would represent a positive trend compared to the 2.2% figure, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures.

U.S. Private Sector Employment Trends

The ADP Research Institute released its Nonfarm Employment Change figure for May, which provided a snapshot of monthly employment changes across 19 U.S. manufacturing sectors, excluding agriculture, based on payroll data from approximately 400,000 private enterprises. The consensus forecast before the release had suggested a potential addition of 80,000 jobs, a figure that would have indicated a significant moderation from the previously reported gain of 246,000. This indicator was viewed as a bellwether for labor market health and broader industrial sector activity, with substantial deviations from the forecast holding the potential to influence perceptions of economic momentum. As of June 18, 2025, an upcoming forecast predicted a 1.9% change. To determine if this 1.9% represents a positive or negative trend, it would need to be compared against the actual May employment change data and other prevailing economic forecasts closer to that future date; however, a 1.9% increase in employment would generally be considered a positive trend compared to a specific numerical job addition like 80,000, though direct percentage-to-number comparisons require knowing the total employment base.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Point to Labor Market Shifts

On June 5, 2025, at 12:30 PM, the Department of Labor released new Initial Jobless Claims figures, a key barometer of labor health closely watched for indications of potential shifts. The forecast before the release stood at 233,000 new filings, suggesting a possible increase from a previous forecast of 226,000. This data, representing individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time, was understood to potentially indicate a softening labor market if it rose, though analysts often considered the less volatile four-week moving average for a more stable assessment and noted that sustained growth could historically pressure the US dollar.

Unemployment Rate Released, Showing Potential Improvement

On June 6, 2025, at 12:30 PM, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Unemployment Rate figures. Prior to the release, forecasts had indicated a potential unemployment rate of 4.0%, which would have marked a decrease from the previous forecast of 4.4%. A lower rate, such as the forecasted 4.0%, was generally anticipated to be perceived positively, potentially indicating a more robust economy, boosting investor confidence, and possibly exerting a positive influence on the U.S. dollar, although actual market reactions would depend on how the released figure compared to the forecast and the broader economic context.