Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

Switzerland's Employment Saw Slight Uptick

According to a recent forecast released on May 26, 2025, by the Federal Statistical Office, Switzerland's employment level showed a slight increase, with the total number of officially employed people for the reported quarter reaching 5.563 million, up from the previous forecast of 5.550 million. This rise in employment was viewed by market analysts and investors as a potential positive indicator for the Swiss franc, suggesting business expansion and a potentially robust economic environment. 

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Saw Significant Rise

On January 27, 2025, the U.S. Conference Board reported a significant increase in the Consumer Confidence Index, which rose to 98.8 from a previous forecast of 66.6. This key indicator, based on a survey of over 5,000 households, reflected an upswing in consumer sentiment regarding the U.S. However, it was noted that while the forecasted jump was substantial, it was a projection based on survey data, subject to dynamic factors and the unpredictable nature of economic landscapes. Next update is expected on June 24, 2025, with a forecast of 88.4, showing a degree of alarm.

French Consumer Spending Expected to Stall

On May 28, 2025, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) released its monthly Consumer Spending figures, forecasting a 0.0% change for the reported month. This suggested a potential stall in consumer activity, a noticeable deceleration from the previous month's 0.4% growth, which could introduce uncertainty for the euro. While robust consumer spending typically supports a currency, a flat or declining reading could weigh on the euro, though the actual market reaction was subject to various broader economic factors and market sentiment. Next forecast is expected on 27 June, 2025 with a forecast of -0.5%.

US GDP Revised Down to -0.3%

On May 29, 2025, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis released its revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for the United States, indicating a potential quarter-over-quarter contraction of -0.3%, a significant shift from the previous projection of 2.4%. This key economic indicator, representing the total monetary value of all goods and services produced, is routinely adjusted for inflation to allow for accurate comparisons of economic output and growth rates. While positive GDP growth typically strengthens the dollar, the implications of this negative forecast were less certain and were expected to be influenced by other market factors, prompting further analysis among economists and market participants. The coming report, dated June 26, 2025, is expected to show the same trend with a forecast of -0.2%.

Core Inflation Stalled in US, PCE Data Showed

On May 30, 2025, the United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data was released, showing a 0.0% increase in core inflation for April, following a previous forecast of 0.1%. This figure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve to gauge underlying inflationary pressures. While a lower-than-expected reading might suggest moderating inflation and temper expectations for aggressive monetary tightening, impacting the U.S. dollar, its ultimate market effect remained subject to broader economic factors.