Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

U.S. Conference Board's Latest LEI Projection

On May 19, 2025, the United States Conference Board unveiled its latest Leading Economic Index (LEI) forecast, indicating a potential -0.3% month-over-month shift. This figure marked a slight adjustment from the previous forecast of -0.5%. The LEI, a composite index of ten leading U.S. macroeconomic indicators, was designed to discern the broader direction of economic activity by mitigating the volatility of individual components. While these numbers provided a snapshot, they were inherently probabilistic, offering no definitive assurances regarding the future trajectory of the economy. The next update is expected on June 20, 2025, with a forecast of -0.8%, showing the degree of alarm.

Canadian Inflation Cools Slightly in May

The Canadian Consumer Price Index data, released on May 20, 2025, indicated a potential 0.4% increase, a noticeable change from the 0.6% projected in the previous month. Historically, a faster rise in the CPI has sometimes been linked to a strengthening of the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The next update is expected on June 24, 2025. Current forecasts anticipate that the month-over-month increase will hold steady at 0.4%. This upcoming release will be closely watched for further insights into Canada's economic climate.

US Oil Stocks: A Factor in Global Price Dynamics

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provided its latest weekly update on commercial crude oil inventories within the United States on May 21, 2025. This report serves as a key indicator of supply levels. A wide array of factors, including international political events and changes in worldwide economic activity, play a significant role in determining price movements. Market participants are now looking forward to the next set of data, which is scheduled for release on May 29, 2025.

US Housing Market: A Look at Closed Deals

On Thursday, May 22, 2025, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) published its latest Existing Home Sales report, which offered insights into the U.S. housing market's performance. The forecast stood at 4.01 million, a figure that remained consistent with the previous forecast, possibly suggesting a period of stability in secondary housing transactions. This report meticulously quantified the number of previously owned homes sold within a given month, exclusively considering "closed deals" to provide a more definitive measure of actual market activity. The coming report, dated June 23, 2025, is expected to show the same trend with a forecast of 3.92 million.

German GDP Shows Modest Growth

On May 23, 2025, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany reported that the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter for the first quarter of 2025. This figure represented a modest uptick from the stagnant 0.0% growth recorded in the previous quarter, offering a nuanced signal about the trajectory of Europe's largest economy. The reported GDP, a comprehensive measure of all goods and services produced within Germany, was theoretically linked with positive sentiment towards a nation's currency. Consequently, this growth could, in principle, exert some influence on the valuation of the euro, although the relationship between GDP figures and currency movements was rarely direct or guaranteed.