The US to release ISM Manufacturing PMI today

Market participants are recommended to be vigilant about the publication of the Manufacturing PMI of November released by the Institute for Supply Management today at 15:00 GMT. This is high-importance economic news from the business sector. The index is expected to be 50.5, as per the predictions of top economists. Moreover, the US dollar quotes will be positively impacted when the index exceeds a reading above 50. Meanwhile, when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published this index on 1 Nov 2022 at 14:00 GMT it was reported to be 50.2 in place of the expected 51.8.

At a time of increasing borrowing costs and other inflationary pressures existing in the US economy, this announcement of the Manufacturing PMI is quite crucial. Due to this weakening nature of the economy, the Federal Reserve is most likely to decrease the pace of rising rates by the end of this year. Meanwhile, suppose the indicator is weaker than expected. In that case, it will further intensify these existing issues and weigh on the currency, enabling the EUR/USD pair to gain on its bullish intraday surge. Despite a bullish risk tone and expectations for a less hawkish Fed, any better-than-expected result is most likely to cheer USD bulls.

The business conditions of the manufacturing sector of the United States could be analysed, as they are assessed as per the production level, supplier deliveries, employment, new orders and inventories of this sector. Marketers are advised to keep track of this indicator as they are determined by a thorough survey of representatives of companies that are included in the list of the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS).

Announcement of the US Initial Jobless Claims

The US Department of Labor will be publishing the Initial Jobless Claims today at 13:30 GMT. Market participants who are concerned with the labor sector are advised to keep a note of its release, which is expected to be 231000. Even though it is medium-importance economic news, marketers are anticipated to be updated about its publication, especially in the wake of the announcement of Nonfarm Payrolls in the coming days. When the Initial Jobless Claims was released on 23 Nov 2022 as of GMT 13:30, it stood at 240000. In today's announcement, if the indicator is diminishing as anticipated, this change will have a positive impact on dollar quotes.

The rising application numbers for unemployment benefits could be due to the increasing layoffs in the technology industry in the past three months. However, this does not indicate a significant shift in the competitive labour market conditions. In October, the US economy added 261,000 jobs, yet the unemployment rate jumped to 3.7%, up from 3.5% in September. Since the 1980s, even during the most aggressive rate-rising cycle of the Fed, the labour market has been robust. Such a situation is supposed to reduce high inflation by depressing economic demand.