US Durable Goods Orders Stalled in January, Missing Expectations

US Durable Goods Orders Stalled in January, Missing Expectations

New orders for US-manufactured durable goods were reported to have remained unchanged in January 2026, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The flat reading followed a downwardly revised decline of 0.9% in December and came in below market expectations of a 1.2% increase. The data suggested that manufacturing demand may have lost momentum at the start of the year, reflecting a mixed performance across key sectors.

Sector-wise, gains in primary metals, computers and electronic products, and fabricated metal products were observed, with each category recording modest increases during the month. However, these improvements were offset by declines in capital goods, transportation equipment, and electrical equipment, appliances, and components. The drop in capital goods orders, often seen as a key indicator of business investment, indicated that corporate spending plans may have remained subdued during the period.

Excluding the volatile transportation category, durable goods orders were estimated to have risen by 0.4%, following an upwardly revised increase of 1.3% in December. Similarly, orders excluding defense rose by 0.5% after a previously revised decline of 1.9%. Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft—considered a closely watched proxy for business investment—were reported to have remained flat, suggesting a cautious stance among businesses despite some resilience in broader manufacturing demand.

Looking ahead, analysts’ projections indicated that durable goods orders might have increased by around 1.8% by the end of the quarter. However, longer-term estimates suggested a more moderate trend, with growth expected to stabilize near 0.3% in 2027. These projections pointed to a potential gradual recovery in manufacturing activity, although near-term uncertainty and uneven demand patterns may have continued to influence the sector’s trajectory.