Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

US Non-Manufacturing PMI (May 2025) Released

The ISM's Non-Manufacturing PMI, a key indicator of the US service sector based on a survey of over 400 companies, was released on May 5th, 2025, at 14:00. The forecast held steady at 52.6, suggesting continued expansion (readings above 50 typically indicate growth). While a figure above this threshold might be perceived as positive for the US dollar, the actual market impact remains uncertain due to various other economic influences beyond this single report. The next update is expected on June 4, 2025, with a steady forecast of 52.6.

Markit Services PMI Points to Contraction in German Economy

The Markit Services PMI for Germany, released by S&P Global on May 6, 2025, at 07:55, forecasts a potential contraction in the service sector with a reading of 48.8, a notable decrease from the previous 50.9. This indicator, derived from surveys across various service industries regarding new orders, employment, and prices, suggests a likely downturn, which could exert downward pressure on the euro. However, the ultimate impact on the euro's value will depend on broader economic conditions and market reactions at the time of the announcement. The next update is on 22 May, 2025, with a positive sign of 50.0.

Rising US Oil Inventories May Pressure Global Prices

EIA data released on May 7, 2025, at 14:30 indicates a projected increase of 2.000 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories, a shift from the previous forecast of -0.533 million barrels. This potential rise in stockpiles, a key weekly indicator, could suggest weaker US oil demand and potentially lead to downward pressure on global oil prices. However, the ultimate price movement will also be influenced by geopolitical events, production decisions, and broader economic factors, making any prediction inherently uncertain. The coming report, dated May 14, 2025, is expected to worsen at -3.654 million.

Reduced Trade Surplus Projected for Germany

Germany's trade surplus is projected to shrink to €17.2 billion, according to Federal Statistical Office data released on May 8, 2025, at 06:00. This decrease from the previous €19.2 billion signals a potential shift in the balance of exports and imports, raising questions about the nation's economic outlook given its importance as a measure of domestic and global demand.

India's Forex Reserves Projected to Increase: RBI

The RBI, in its forecast released on May 9, 2025, at 11:30 AM in Mumbai, projects India's foreign exchange reserves to potentially increase to $691.105 billion from the previous $686.389 billion. These reserves, comprising foreign currency assets, serve multiple purposes for the RBI, including monetary policy implementation, managing external debt, and potential interventions in the foreign exchange market to influence the rupee's exchange rate, with a possible increase potentially lending support to the currency depending on broader economic conditions and RBI policies.