US Durable Goods Orders December Forecast Indicates Potential Stability

U.S. Durable Goods Orders December Forecast Indicates Potential Stability

The U.S. Census Bureau is scheduled to publish the updated Durable Goods Orders data on December 23, 2024, at 13:30 GMT. The forecasted growth rate is 0.2%, which is the same as the prior month's reading. This important economic indicator measures the value of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for durable goods, defined as merchandise that will last at least three years, such as machinery, vehicles, and appliances.

The data can also provide an indication of the pace of economic activity, especially industrial investments and the health of the manufacturing sector. If this forecast is correct, then it could indicate a consistent but very modest confidence of businesses in the current state of the economy. Still, the upside surprise can indicate the stronger-than-expected investment in high-value goods and can raise optimism for industrial production over the next few months.

If the indicator were to beat forecasts, it may favor the greenback because strong orders for durable goods generally suggest robust economic performance. Conversely, disappointment in these data will only add to the anxiety of a decline in industrial activities, thereby pulling down dollar performance.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index data may point to economic optimism

The Conference Board will publish the United States Consumer Confidence Index on December 23, 2024, at 15:00 GMT. The forecast is to rise to 115.9 from the previous month reading of 111.7. It measures both current assessment and future expectations, but future expectations carry a heavy weight in the index.

Assuming the forecast holds, this rise in consumer confidence may indicate that people are becoming more hopeful about economic stability and growth. When consumers are more confident, they usually anticipate better financial situations, which could lead to higher consumer spending. A stronger-than-expected actual reading may indicate optimism, potentially boosting spending and economic activities in the near term. On the other hand, a deficiency with respect to expectations should create fears regarding the continuance of economic conditions in the near future and, from this angle, could have depressed consumer spending and, hence, economic growth prospects. The markets continue to take a dent into this sentiment, at least those parts reliant on consumer demand.